Thesis
Mexico and North America: an interdependence to manage
Mexico buys some of the cheapest gas in the world because it is integrated with the United States. That same integration leaves it with 2.4 days of reserves.
Behind-the-meter generation and storage for industrial plants across the Bajío.
Let's discuss your projectBajío Ventures · September 2026
Mexico buys some of the cheapest gas in the world. On 11 September 2026, Henry Hub traded at 2.8 USD/MMBtu, against 27 in Europe and around 28.5 in Asia. That is almost ten times less.
| Benchmark | Market | USD/MMBtu (11 Sep 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Henry Hub | U.S. / Mexico | 2.8 |
| TTF | Europe | 27.0 |
| JKM | Asia | ~28.5 |
A price that comes from integration
That price does not come from Mexican geology. It comes from integration with the United States.
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Imports as a share of consumption | over 70% |
| Imports from Texas (West and South) | 91% |
| Record U.S. exports to Mexico | 7.5 Bcf/d (May 2025) |
| National consumption | 8.6 Bcf/d (2024) |
| Gas share of power generation | ~60% |
| Pipeline network | 21,149 km |
The weak link: storage
In 2018, SENER issued a policy requiring CENAGAS to build 45 Bcf of strategic inventory, equal to five days of consumption, by 2026. The deadline has arrived. Today Mexico has 2.4 days; the United States, Germany and France have between 80 and 120.
| Days of consumption | |
|---|---|
| 2026 target (SENER, 2018) | 5 |
| Mexico today | 2.4 |
| U.S., Germany, France | 80–120 |
We have seen what happens when supply fails
In February 2021, winter storm Uri froze production in Texas. On the first day, 4.8 million CFE customers lost power, and rolling outages reached 26 states. At EnerBaja 2026 the panel acknowledged it: the chain has backup, the molecule does not.
Baja California, the extreme case
Baja California is not on the national pipeline network: it receives gas from Arizona, and its power grid runs synchronized with California. The new González Ortega plant in Mexicali, inaugurated on 21 June 2026, adds 653 MW to the system and more than 5,000 GWh a year, and it depends on that gas.
Power integration is moving forward. A 400 kV Puerto Peñasco–Mexicali line already exists, its extension to Tijuana is 95% complete, and in April 2026 CFE authorized the 456 km Puerto Peñasco–Hermosillo segment.
What it means for industry
- Low prices are a market condition, not a guarantee.
- With 2.4 days of reserves, continuity cannot be delegated to the gas chain.
- The sector itself sees gas as a bridge of about 15 years.
The line repeated most often at EnerBaja: “the most expensive energy is the energy you don’t have.”
Sources: Canada LNG Group — JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (14 Sep 2026) · La Silla Rota — U.S. dependence above 70% and storage covers 2.4 days, Banamex warns (18 Feb 2026) · EIA — U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico reach new records · México Industry — Pipelines in Mexico · Reportacero — SENER issues Natural Gas Storage Public Policy · La Opinión — Mexico’s dependence on U.S. gas after the Texas storm (18 Feb 2021) · La Silla Rota — González Ortega CC inauguration (21 Jun 2026) · Yahoo Noticias — Baja California advances integration with the national grid
Behind-the-meter generation and storage for industrial plants across the Bajío.
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